UK Textile System, UK Consumer Demand, Apparent Market Demand

Within total apparel some distinct markets are more over-supplied than others, and a number of apparel categories are actually well-balanced, either because the increase in apparent demand was not so strong in these markets or because corrections are underway or are complete. For example, the market for women/girls blouses and shirts remained distinctly over-supplied in 2007 and strong corrections are forecast going forward from 2008. In the market for women/girls denim trousers a notable decrease in supply in 2007 bought some balance to the market and now supply-side growth is possible from 2009 going forwards. The short-term fortunes for the various individual apparel categories will be mixed going forward, and forecasts for each can be made, but for this article we concentrate on the larger market picture.

For the apparel market as a whole the pain of supply-side corrections are only forecast to last for two years. After 2009, and to satisfy the albeit modest growth forecast for underlying consumer demand over the coming years, growth in supply will be necessary to keep the U.K. textile system moving. Positive growth of 2% is forecast for 2010, 5% for 2011 and 6% for 2012. Stronger growth in underlying consumption in 2008/09 than currently appears likely would otherwise make this readjustment process far easier on market suppliers.

Long-term Apparel Growth Prospects

The demand for apparel in the U.K. is forecast to continue to increase over the long-term at 2.7% p.a. (between 2007-2017), equating to 2.4% p.a. growth in per capita demand over the same period. Within total apparel there are long-term growth opportunities for some categories, but for some others the long-term forecast is less promising. By 2010 total apparel consumption is forecast to increase to 990 mKg (16.2 Kg/cap) and reach 1,270 mKg (20.1 Kg/cap) by 2020.

Over the past few years international competition amongst textile exporters caused a strong increase in imports of apparel goods into the U.K. textile system, leaving the market awash with the spoils of over-supply and the U.K. textile pipeline full of an accumulation of apparel stock. To reduce stocks to a more realistic level, supply-side corrections are expected going forward from 2008, but these are likely to coincide with a period of weaker consumption growth that could make the readjustment process all the harder. Long-term growth in apparel demand is near-assured however, with a return to supply-side growth currently forecast to come around 2010.

About the Author:

The author is associated with Textrends.org as a Senior Analyst.

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