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Global growth and distribution: Are China and India reshaping the world?
Source  : AEPC

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Extracted from Report of Development Prospects Group, the World Bank


In 1980, China and India accounted for 2 percent of global output, and the remaining low and middle income countries made up 16 percent of world GDP. By 2005, the contribution of China and India nearly quadrupled to 7 percent of global production, while the share of other developing countries declined to 15 percent.


The growing importance of developing economies can thus be largely explained by the economic expansion of China and India. In the future, the increasing level of China and Indias integration with the global economy, combined with sustained high growth, is likely to further cement their position as an important engine of global development.


An outstanding growth performance of relatively poor and highly populated countries like China and India signifies a reduction in the number of poor around the world and a decline in global income disparities.


The World Economy in 2030


Developing countries will grow faster due to favorable demographic and productivity trends. Measured at constant 2001 prices the global economy would reach $75 trillion in 2030 up from $35 trillion in 2005, an overall increase of some 2.1 times. The developing-country GDP would jump from $8 trillion to $24.3 trillion increasing its global share of output from 23 %to 33%


Developing countries will account for a larger portion of world output in the coming decade



The accelerated growth path of many developing countries is a consequence, of the combination of improved initial conditions, better policies, demographic trends, and the still wide gap in productivityrelative to high-income countries.


Over time, China and India played a major role in the quickening pace of growth in the developing world: the contribution of the two giants to growth of low and middle income countries has increased from 45 percent in the first period to 50 percent in the second. Over the next 23 years, China and India are likely to account for 18% of growth in global output and 46% of growth in real output of todays low and middle income countries.


 

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 Published On :  Thursday, July 17, 2008

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