As previously discussed, the U.S. utilization of safeguard measures may have mitigated some of the negative impact of the termination of the ATC quotas. However, the fact that the 2006 quotas were not fully used would seem to indicate that the safeguards are not necessarily preventing Chinese imports from sub-planting U.S. manufacturers and workers.

An unanticipated - and perhaps, unpredictable - trend in the U.S. trade data was the substantial rise in clothing and textile imports starting prior to the end of the ATC quotas. In the clothing market, U.S. total imports jumped by $5.8 billion in 2003, touching off a four year run of rapid increases. In the textile market, the big increase in total imports occurred in 2004 not in 2005 or 2006. Besides the possible effects of the safeguard measures, another possible explanation for the pre-ATC termination growth was China's accession to the WTO in December 2001.

One final prediction that proved to be comparatively accurate was the use of trade remedies by the United States. Yet, there are two aspects of the use of trade remedies that the analysts did not foretell.

First, the "pre-emptive" petitioning of the CITA for safeguard measures prior to January1, 2005 was unprecedented. Second, following the announced preliminary countervailing duty decision by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Chinese coated paper, there are reports that a coalition of U.S. clothing and textile companies is consulting with lawyers about initiating a claim against Chinese clothing and textile imports.

Source: http://aepc.fibre2fashion.com/vol1issue8/