Repeated efforts to revive and resuscitate the dormant Doha Development Round having failed, more and more nations are resorting to the bilateral or multi-lateral trade agreement, outside the canvas of the WTO. A hard and cold look at the various attempts that have been made from time to time on revive DDR does not offer any hope, which is why more and more bilateral or multi-lateral trade agreements are being signed. But first, our own final word on the possibility of revival of Doha Development Round (DDR).

Will DDR Revive?

Even an optimist die-hard would not think so. Why? Its clue was given in The Stitch Times in October, 2009 issues Cover Story: Doha Development Round Staging a Comeback, when the views of important players in the global apparel trade were reflected, showing a wide variance which was natural. Not only the DDR has been rendered more complex than the previous Uruguay Round as topics have increased threefold, while he number of members has increased five times in World Trade Organization, but also the important players have stuck to their old guns. Ron Kirk, the US Trade Representative was more forthcoming when he said, We believe that it is imperative to look at other alternatives inclusive of continuing our multilateral agreements, specifically the sustained bilateral acts of negotiations that will bring clarity. We think it is necessary to do, so that all the parties can have a clear picture of what to gain from the Doha Round. I think that was amplified somewhat here today by reservations of some nations that have been reluctant to talk.

Brazils External Affairs Minister, Celso Luiz Nunes Amorim, another important player, was not in agreement with the USTR. On the question of using bilateral engagements within the Doha Round for additional market access, he said, I have been in this endgame for a long time. We have been engaging in bilaterals all the time it is normal, but it cannot replace he multi-lateral process .If we want to change to a bilateral process, we can be sure that the result will be much worse from the point of view of developing countries. China, too objected to introduction of bilaterals, as proposed by the US and a senior Chinese trade official said that while his country was ready to clarify on market access issues, it was opposed to negotiating these during the bilateral meetings. Indias Minister of Commerce Anand Sharma disagreed with several others, when he said, In some quarters, it has been suggested that most issues have been settled and we are almost in the endgame. However, if we look at the text modalities on agriculture and non-agriculture market access (NAMA) alone, it would be apparent that are still gaps and a number of unresolved issues.

Apparently, DDR does not appear to aspire confidence and the nations, including India, are forced into looking for alternatives. Now what are the alternatives?

The Alternative

Probably, the answer is the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), which have become, in recent years, a very prominent feature of the Multilateral Trading System (MTS).There are some 220+ such agreements in existence today, and they are expected to scale up to 400 by the end of present decade.

The wide and rapid acceptability of RTAs as the next best alternative to WTOs multi-lateralism by most of the countries did set India thinking on the immediate desirability of such RTAs being entered into. In order to make up the shortfall that India felt has occurred, there was a flurry of activities leading to negotiating RTAs with different countries or groupings. The Ministry of Commerces list of RTAs include 19 such agreements that constitutes Indias current engagements. This included the recently concluded agreements with the 10-nation ASEAN and South Korea. The other prospective trade partners with whom negotiations are on for RTAs include Japan, the European Union, the Gulf Co-operation Council and the European Free Trade Area, besides the US. In addition, India is also pursuing such negotiations with Australia, Canada and New Zealand. These are in addition to our existing RTAs with Thailand, Sri Lanka and Singapore.

When all those trade agreements are signed over the next two to three years, India would have agreed on a reciprocal basis to eliminate tariffs on 85-90% of products with countries that account for over 70% of Indias global trade.

Indias Objective of a RTA

But before we rush into the competitive race for entering into more and more RTAs, we need to ponder as to what we are trying to achieve. We need to review the benefits that have accrued to India from the RTAs

We have already entered into. In our case, the RTAs entered into and implemented by us have, so far, resulted in widening our negative trade balance with the respective partners. The RTAs with Singapore, Thailand and Sri Lanka are the glaring examples of India making a self goal. It is not going to be any different in case of our RTAs with ASEAN and BIMSTEC, which are close to being finally inked.