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Conclusions
It is believed the quota regime has frozen the market share, providing export opportunities even for high cost producers. Thus, in the free trade regime, the pattern of imports in the quota countries would undergo changes. The issues that would govern the market share in the post quota regime would eventually be productivity, raw material base, quality, cost of inputs, including labour, design skills and operation of economies of scale.
It is believed that quotas, by limiting the supply of goods have kept export prices artificially high. Thus, it is estimated that there would be price war in the post quota regime, with competitive price cuts. The price and quantity effects would depend on the efficiency in production process, supply chain management and the price elasticity of demand.
Due to the expected fall in prices, developing countries with high production cost have little choice but to compete head-on with the biggest low cost suppliers. In this process, it is presumed that there would be better resource reallocation in these economies.
It is assumed that quota restrictions would continue beyond 2005 in various forms. It is also widely recognized that removal of quota may not directly provide easy and unrestricted access to developed country markets. There would be non-tariff barriers as well. Standards related to health, safety, environment, quality of work life and child labour would gain further momentum in international trade in textiles and clothing.
Strategies and Recommendations
Cost competitiveness in Indian garments sector has been restrained by limited scale operations, obsolete technology and reservation under SSI policies. While retaining its traditional cost advantages of home grown cotton and low cost labour, India needs to sharpen its competitive edge by lowering the cost of operations through efficient use of production inputs and scale operations. Besides, there are needs for rationalization of charges, levies related to usage of export logistics to remain cost competitive.
As fallout to the quota regime, there would be consolidation of production and restriction on supplying countries, which would necessarily mean improved scale operations. Indian players should also integrate to achieve operating leverage and demonstrate high bargaining power.
It is reported that Chinese textile firms have already invested heavily to expand and grab huge market share in the quota free world. In India, organised players in this sector would require huge investments to remain competitive in the quota free world. These players need to expand and integrate vertically to achieve scale operations and introduce new technologies. It is estimated that the industry would require Rs. 1.5 trillion (US $ 35 billion) new capital investment in the next ten years (by 2014) to lap the potential export opportunities of US $ 70 billion. It is estimated that USA and EU together would offer a market of US $ 42 billion for Indian textiles and garments in 2014.
Technology would play a lead role in the weaving and processing, which would improve quality and productivity levels. Innovations would also be happening in this sector, as many developed countries would innovate new generation machineries that are likely to have low manual interface and power cost. Indian textile industry should also turn into high technology mode to reap the benefits of scale operations and quality. Foreign investments coupled with foreign technology transfer would help the industry to turn into high-tech mode.
Internationally, trading in textile and garment sector is concentrated in the hands of large retail firms. Majority of them are looking for few vendors with bulk orders and hence opting for vertically integrated companies. Thus, there is need for integrating the operations in India also, from spinning to garment making, to gain their attention. This would also bring down the turn around time and improve quality. Indian players should also improve upon their soft skills, viz., design capabilities, textile technology, management and negotiating skills.
Garment manufacturing business is order driven. It would be difficult for the players to keep the workforce full time, even in lean season. This calls for changes in contract labour laws.
Logistics and supply chain would also play a crucial role as timely delivery would be an important requirement for success in international trade. The logistics and supply chain management of Indian textile firms are relatively weak and needs improvement and efficiency. China has already created a world class export infrastructure. Given the volume of projections for exports by India, it may be necessary to create additional export infrastructure, especially investment for modernization of ports. In addition, India needs to invest for creating brand equity, supply chain management and apparel industry education.
To sum up, the ability of Indian textile industry to take advantage of quota phase-out would depend upon their ability to enhance overall competitiveness through exploitation of economies of scale in manufacturing and supply chain. The need of the hour therefore is to evolve a well chalked out strategy, aimed at improvement in the levels of productivity and efficiency, quality control, faster product innovation, quick response to changes in consumer preferences and the ability to move up in the value chain by building brand names and acquiring channels of distribution so as to outweigh the advantages of competitors in the long run.
Source: Export-Import Bank of India, India.
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