2015/16 global cotton output to be down 6%: USDA

23 Jul '15

5 min read

Global 2015/16 cotton output is projected at 111.5 million bales, 6 per cent or 7.5 million bales below 2014/15 and the smallest global crop since 2009/10.

According to the latest USDA July report, production declines are noted for most cotton producers as relative prices favour alternative crop plantings for 2015/16,.

Global cotton harvested area in 2015/16 is forecast at 31.8 million hectares, 2 million hectares or 6 per cent below the preceding year.

World cotton yield is estimated at 764 kg/hectare, slightly below 2014/15 and global cotton production is expected to remain concentrated among a few countries in 2015/16.

The top five cotton-producing countries are forecast to contribute a combined 79 per cent of world production in 2015/16, slightly above the 2011/12- 2014/15 average.

In 2015/16, India is expected to surpass China as the world's largest cotton producer with a crop forecast at 29.5 million bales.

While lower harvested area is anticipated, a rebound in yield is projected to keep India's production unchanged from 2014/15 and India's share of world production is expected to climb to 26.5 per cent.

For China, 2015/16 production is forecast to decline 10 per cent or 3 million bales to 27 million bales, the lowest since 2003/04 and its share of global production is forecast at 24 per cent as area continues to fall.

In 2015/16, the lowest area or 3.7 million hectares is expected to be devoted to cotton in China since a similar amount was harvested in 1999/2000.

USDA has lowered global cotton consumption estimates for both 2014/15 and 2015/16 in July, but remains on an upward trend as a result of world economic growth projections.

China's consumption was reduced sharply in July due to continued strong competition from both polyester fibre and imported cotton products.

However, China's reduction was partially offset by increases in other countries, notably India and Vietnam.

For 2014/15, world cotton mill use is now projected at 110.9 million bales, 600,000 bales below the June estimate but nearly 2 million bales above the previous season.

The July reduction was largely attributable to a decrease of 1 million bales for China, where consumption is now estimated at 34 million bales, the lowest since 2003/04.

Record cotton yarn imports by China have resulted from policies that have supported domestic cotton prices above market-clearing levels, due to which spinning cotton locally is less attractive than importing yarn.

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