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Adobe projects $207 bn in US holiday season e-sales, $910 bn globally

22 Oct '21
3 min read
Pic: Shutterstock
Pic: Shutterstock

US holiday sales online are expected to hit $207 billion from November 1 to December 31, setting a new record, according to the Adobe online shopping forecast for this holiday season released recently. Globally, online spending is expected to hit $910 billion this season, an 11 per cent growth year over year (YoY). Adobe expects over $4 trillion to be spent globally in 2021—a new milestone for e-commerce.

The projection for the United States represents a 10 per cent increase from 2020, a strong growth rate after a year where the pandemic made e-commerce an essential service.

In the United States, as e-commerce becomes more ubiquitous, the major shopping days are losing prominence. Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $36 billion in online spending—17 per cent of the entire holiday season.

The growth there is slowing however, coming in at just 5 per cent YoY for the five-day period (less than the season overall at 10 percent YoY). Adobe expects Cyber Monday to drive $11.3 billion (up by 4 per cent YoY) and remain the biggest day of the season (and year), with Black Friday coming in at $9.5 billion (up by 5 per cent YoY) and Thanksgiving at $5.4 billion (up by 6 per cent YoY). All three major shopping days are growing less than the season overall.

Surging consumer demand for online shopping is happening as retailers contend with dire supply chain challenges, from crowded ports and cargo delays to disruptions in overseas manufacturing. Shoppers are feeling the impact.

Compared to a pre-pandemic period (Jan 2020), the prevalence of out-of-stock messages has risen by a whopping 172 per cent going into the holiday season, Adobe said in a press release. The company expects it to remain at this level, increasing for certain products throughout the season.

Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, apparel has the highest out-of-stock levels currently, followed by sporting goods, baby products and electronics.

A weakened supply chain is also driving up prices online. Adobe expects US consumers will pay 9 per cent more on an average during Cyber Week this year compared to the last holiday season. This is the result of smaller discounts, on top of e-commerce inflation that has persisted through the year.

Adobe forecasts discounts will be in the 5 per cent to 25 per cent range across categories this season, compared to a historical average of 10 per cent to 30 per cent.

On an average, a US consumer will spend 12 full hours shopping online this holiday season.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

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