'Chinese economy in major transition'

07 Oct '15

4 min read

From advanced economy financial markets to developing country commodity producers, the world has closely followed developments in China in recent months. After 35 years of extraordinarily rapid growth, the Chinese economy is undergoing a major transition from export-led growth to a model increasingly driven by consumption and services, with less emphasis on debt-financed public investment, the IMF said in its blog iMFdirect.

This process has been accompanied by a slowdown in imports and financial market volatility, raising reasonable concerns about the impact on the global economy, and particularly the spillovers to countries that have benefited most from China's rapid rise.

It is important to understand, however, that the transition is essential if China is to create a more inclusive economy that gives greater play to market forces and achieves safer and more sustainable growth. This will involve a delicate balancing act for the Chinese government—implementing reforms while maintaining demand and financial stability. As reforms proceed, it will be critical to ensure effective governance of newly liberalized markets and enterprises. This will require, in particular, hardened budget constraints for both state-owned and private firms, and continued strengthening of the financial supervision framework, according to the blog.

So far, developments in the real economy provide some comfort that the transition can be managed. The current pace of China's slowdown remains in line with the IMF's forecast, although downside risks have increased. This is based on the strength of infrastructure investment and consumption—particularly in services—even as activity has clearly weakened in manufacturing and construction.

China has adequate policy space should further policy stimulus become necessary to prevent growth from falling excessively. The focus of such measures should target both demand and rebalancing.

By contrast, it would be preferable to avoid the renewed use of debt-financed investment so as to prevent a resurgence of corporate leveraging. Since the global financial crisis, growth in China has relied heavily on investment and credit, with the biggest buildup of leverage going to state-owned enterprises, the real estate and construction sectors, and weaker corporates. This created growing vulnerabilities which - while still manageable - cannot continue to accumulate, the blog warned.

It pointed out that the dangers of excessive leverage have become clear in the stock market. Fueled by strong credit growth, which has since slowed down, stock markets surged by over 100 per cent between November 2014 and June 2015 - only to correct by 40 per cent in recent months. This correction was probably necessary, but it had significant global spillovers. The good news is that it is expected to have only a limited direct impact on the economy, given the low degree of share ownership by Chinese households and the low share of equity in corporate financing.

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