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Cotton imports from Asia outside China to rise in 2015/16
05
Nov '15
Cotton imports from Asian countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia is expected to go up in 2015/16, while those from China are expected to go down.

“In 2015/16, Asian imports excluding China are expected to reach 4.5 million tons, representing 60% of world imports,” a report from the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) stated.

According to ICAC, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia are the three largest importers in the region outside of China.

Imports by Bangladesh may slightly exceed one million tons in 2015/16, up 4 per cent from last season, while imports by Vietnam are projected to grow 5 per cent to 990,000 tons.

“After declining in 2013/14, imports by Indonesia increased 13 per cent to 735,000 tons in 2014/15 and may reach 780,000 tons in 2015/16,” it said.

However, Chinese imports are projected to fall by 24 per cent from 2014/15 to less than 1.4 million tons in 2015/16.

Although, China will likely remain the world's largest importer in 2015/16, its share of world imports has fallen from 55 per cent in 2011/12 to 22 per cent in 2014/15 and may only reach 17 per cent in 2015/16.

Last month, China announced that its 2016 cotton import quota would be limited to 894,000 tons, the same as in 2015, in order to encourage consumption of domestically produced cotton.

Cotton production in China is estimated at 5.4 million tons in 2015/16 and the Chinese government still holds around 11 million tons in its reserves.

The total supply of cotton in China for 2015/16, excluding imports, is estimated at 18 million tons, which would be more than double its annual volume of consumption, forecast at 7.7 million tons.

However, demand for high quality cotton will be partially met by imports, particularly given concerns over the quality of this year's domestic crop.

After reaching 12.7 million tons in 2014/15, ending stocks in China may decrease by 8 per cent in 2015/16 to 11.7 million tons while stocks outside of China are forecast to fall by 2 per cent to 9 million tons.

Mill use in Asia outside of China is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 12 million tons, representing 48 per cent of world consumption projected at 25 million tons in 2015/16.

Mill use in India is expected to reach 5.6 million tons, up 3 per cent from 2014/15 and in Pakistan 2.6 million tons, a hike of 2 per cent from 2014/15.

However, world production is forecast to drop 9 per cent to 23.9 million tons, about 1.1 million tons below consumption.

Although production in the United States is projected to dip 11 per cent to 3.2 million tons and exports to decline 9 per cent to 2.2 million tons, it will likely remain the world's largest exporter.

India, the world's second largest exporter, could see a small recovery in 2015/16, with exports forecast to increase 15 per cent to 1.1 million tons. (AR)

Fibre2Fashion News Desk – India


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