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Crisil foresees 7.5% GDP growth for India in fiscal 2018-19
09
Mar '18
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is seen rising to 7.5 per cent in the next fiscal from the likely 6.5 per cent this fiscal, due to domestic consumption, policy push and synchronised global growth, according to credit rating agency Crisil. The projected GDP growth for fiscal 2018-19 is, however, still below the 13-year average, it added.

Noting the last two years to be sub-par years, interjected by demonetisation and roll out of the goods and services tax (GST), Crisil said the key drivers of the upturn in the next fiscal are largely domestic and policy-driven, though a synchronous upturn in global growth will provide some tailwind, according to a report in an Indian business daily.

The agency identified four thrust vectors— resolution of stressed assets in banking, rural rejuvenation, relentless implementation of reforms and rising global growth —that will critically determine the extent of pick-up and its sustainability.

The asset quality issues in public sector banks have reached such gargantuan proportions — with gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) touching 10.5 per cent — that no sustainable economic recovery is feasible without, at least, beginning of a resolution process, it noted.

Fresh slippages will moderate and NPAs will likely peak at 11 per cent by March 2019. Continued government support though capital infusion, including growth capital, will be critical for the lending cycle to start, Crisil observed.

The agency cautioned that an unintended consequence of resolution will be a possible slowdown or deferment in private sector capital expenditure. (DS)

Fibre2Fashion News Desk – India


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