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Global cotton output down 9% in 2015/16: USDA Sept report
24
Sep '15
The USDA has projected world cotton production in 2015/16 at 108.7 million bales, nearly 9 per cent below 2014/15's crop of 118.9 million bales.

In its September report, USDA said global production is forecast to decrease for the fourth consecutive season and is 15 per cent or 18.7 million bales below 2011/12's record.

Global harvested area in 2015/16 is expected to decline 7.5 per cent at 31.3 million hectares largely due to area declines in India, China, and the United States.

For India, cotton area in 2015/16 is projected 7 per cent below 2014/15's record of 12.7 million hectares since last season's late monsoon benefited cotton because it had a later planting window.

“In 2015/16, India's cotton area is projected at 11.8 million hectares, one of the lowest of the last five years, however, a rebound in yield to 535 kg/hectare will keep the crop near 29 million bales,” it added.

In China, USDA has projected 2015/16 cotton area at 3.6 million hectares, 18 per cent below a year ago and the fourth consecutive decrease.

“Fewer incentives to plant cotton continue to reduce production there despite area moving to the higher yielding Xinjiang region,” it explained.

Although a record yield or 1,562 kg/hectare is forecast in 2015/16, China's production is projected at only 26 million bales, 4 million bales below 2014/15 and the lowest crop estimate since 2003/04.

For Pakistan, the cotton crop is estimated at 10 million bales in 2015/16, about 6 per cent below the previous season due to reductions in both area and yield.

USDA has estimated world cotton consumption in 2015/16 at 113.4 million bales, an increase of less than 2 per cent from last season.

“Although rising slowly since 2011/12, global cotton mill use has been limited by competition for fibre share in many apparel products,” the USDA averred.

The top four cotton spinning countries, China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey are expected to account for a combined 68 per cent of global cotton mill use in 2015/16, similar to last season.

For China, stable mill use of 34 million bales is forecast to reduce its share as total consumption expands slightly and the share is forecast at 30 percent, down from 34 per cent in the 2011-13 season average.

In contrast, USDA added that India's share is projected to increase once again in 2015/16; with a share of nearly 23 per cent, with, India's mill use forecast at 25.7 million bales in 2015/16.

“Meanwhile, Pakistan and Turkey have seen their respective shares of global mill use stabilise in recent years despite rising mill use,” it informed.

Pakistan is projected to consume 10.8 million bales of cotton and account for 9.5 percent of global mill use in 2015/16, while Turkey is forecast to use 6.4 million bales, or 5.6 percent of world use. (AR)

Fibre2Fashion News Desk – India


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