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World cotton trade to rebound in 2011/12
16
Aug '11
World cotton production in 2011/12 is forecast at a record high of 122.7 million bales, a 7-percent increase from the preceding year as producers respond to favorable market prices and a much improved credit environment. While 2011/12 production is expected to decline in the United States, gains in other major producing countries such as Australia, China, India, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan, are expected to result in the global all-time high.

Brazil is forecast to produce 8.7 million bales in 2011/12, up 2 percent from a year ago. Brazil's 2011/12 crop size is expected to reach a new record, as yields are expected to recover from losses due to insufficient rainfall in 2010/11. The United States is forecast to produce about 16.6 million bales in 2011/12, down 12 percent from the previous year as severe drought conditions caused high abandonment in Texas. Harvested area in both the United States and Brazil is forecast below 2010/11.

Australia's 2011/12 crop is forecast at a record 4.5 million bales, up 7 percent from the previous year. Harvested area in Australia is expected to decline 7 percent from the preceding year to 550,000 hectares, but the proportion of high-yielding irrigated area is expected to rise. China and India—the world's leading cotton producers—are forecast to produce 33.0 million bales and 27 million bales in 2011/12, up 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively, from a year ago. China's 2011/12 crop area is expected to increase 7 percent from the previous year, to 5.5 million hectares, while India's area is expected to rise 8 percent to 12.0 million hectares. Pakistan and Uzbekistan are forecast to produce 10.3 million bales and 4.3 million bales in 2011/12, up 17 percent and 5 percent, respectively, from the previous year. Pakistan's 2011/12 harvested area is forecast at 3.3 million hectares, a 3-percent increase from a year earlier. Global 2011/12 cotton area is forecast at 35.4 million hectares, an increase of 6 percent from the preceding year. The global yield in 2011/12 is forecast at 755 kg/ha, the highest in 3 years.

World cotton trade is forecast at 37.6 million bales, up 7 percent from a year earlier and the largest in 4 years. Australia's 2011/12 exports are forecast to increase 69 percent from the previous year, to 4.4 million bales. In Brazil, 2011/12 exports are forecast to rise 85 percent from a year ago, to 3.7 million bales. Anticipated 2010/11 bumper crops in Australia and Brazil are expected to result in record exports in the two Southern Hemisphere countries.

Exports from the African Franc Zone (AFZ) are forecast to increase 18 percent from a year ago, to 2.4 million bales. Uzbekistan's 2011/12 exports are forecast at 3.0 million bales, up 13 percent from the previous year. The United States—the leading global exporter—is forecast to export 12.3 million bales in 2011/12, a 15-percent decline from a year ago. India, the world's secondlargest cotton exporter, is forecast to export 5.0 million bales in 2011/12, unchanged from the previous year.


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