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Cotton prices resume dropping- CEPEA/ESALQ Index
Aug '11
Cotton prices have kept the downward trend in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of August, because of the higher supply. Harvesting activities were in full swing, as well as the cotton ginning, which increased the interest of producers to close new trades. Cotton growers were trying to take advantage of the current price levels to make cash flow to cover liabilities.

Between July 29 to August 15, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for cotton type 41-4 (delivered in São Paulo city, payment in 8 days) moved down 4.8%, to close at 1.7238 real or 1.0841 dollar per pound on Aug. 15.

The Brazilian cotton market was influenced by uncertainties of supply and demand in both domestic and international markets in early August. When industries needed to rebound inventories, quotes were underpinned. When producers needed to make cash flow, prices dropped. In the second week of the month, besides the high supply, most purchasers in Brazil were refrained, reducing liquidity. Few trades were closed and involved small volumes.

Conab (National Company for Food Supply) decreased the forecast for yield of the 2010/11 season compared to the July report. According to the Company, yield might reduce 2.4% in relation to the previous crop, to 1,395 kilos per hectare.

As for production, Conab forecast 1.9 million tons, 63.6% higher than that registered in the 2009/10 season. The planted area may be 67.5% higher compared to the previous crop, totaling 1.4 million hectares.

According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), in July, 27.6 thousand tons were exported. This volume is way above that verified in June (2.6 thousand tons). However, in 2011, shipments have amounted only 77.8 thousand tons, 49.8% lower than in the partial of 2010.

The volume of imports was 5.8 thousand tons, 68.6% below that in the previous month, but 66.8% higher compared to July 2010. In the partial of 2011, imports amounted 139.7 thousand tons, much higher that registered in the partial of 2010 (25.7 thousand tons).

CEPEA - Center for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics

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