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Global cotton mill use to fall - USDA

15 Dec '11
5 min read

World Cotton Trade To Rise in 2011/12
Global 2011/12 cotton exports are forecast at 36.6 million bales, an increase of 3 percent from the previous year due mainly to rising production in several producing countries. Brazil's 2011/12 exports are expected to nearly double to 3.8 million bales. For Australia, 2011/12 cotton exports are forecast at 4.0 million bales, up 59 percent from the preceding year.

India is expected to export 6.0 million bales in 2011/12, up 18 percent from a year ago. Uzbekistan's 2011/12 exports are expected to rise 4 percent to 2.75 million bales in 2011/12, up 4 percent from a year ago. The United States, the leading global exporter of the fiber, is expected to export 11.3 million bales in 2011/12, down 21 percent from a year earlier.

China, the world's top cotton importer, is forecast to import 15.5 million bales in 2011/12, an increase of 29 percent from the previous year, and the second highest on record. China has been importing vigorously to meet its stock accumulation goals. In 2011/12, Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.3 million bales and 2.1 million bales, respectively, down 12 percent and 2 percent from the previous year.

Imports in Pakistan and Turkey are also forecast to decline 3 percent and 25 percent, to 1.4 million bales and 2.5 million bales, respectively, from a year earlier. Although import declines are expected in several importing countries, these reductions are more than offset by increased import demand in China.

Global Mill Use To Decline Further in 2011/12
World 2011/12 cotton consumption is forecast to decline 2.5 percent from a year ago to 111.3 million bales, due mainly to unfavorable global economic conditions and cotton's relatively low share of fiber demand. Several major mill users are expected to reduce consumption.

China, the world's largest cotton consumer, is forecast to consume 45.0 million bales in 2011/12, down 2 percent from the previous year. India is expected to consume 19.5 million bales in 2011/12, a 6- percent decline from the preceding year and the lowest mill use in 3 years. Turkey and the United States are expected to consume 5.3 million bales and 3.6 million bales in 2011/12, down 5 percent and 8 percent, respectively, from a year ago.

Pakistan is the only major consumer in which 2011/12 mill use is expected to increase. Pakistan's cotton consumption is forecast at 10.3 million bales, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier, due mainly to larger domestic supplies.

Global 2011/12 ending stocks are forecast to increase 27 percent to 57.7 million bales. This forecast will represent a major rebound from the previous 2 years when stocks plummeted due to a combination of declining production and rising consumption.

In 2011/12, the opposite phenomenon (rising production and declining consumption) is expected to result in a rebound in ending stocks. The global stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 52 percent in 2011/12. Not surprisingly, cotton prices, as measured by Cotlook's A-index, have declined since 2010/11.

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

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