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Updates on global cotton trade contract for 2012/13
16
May '12
World 2012/13 cotton trade is forecast to decline 10 percent to 37.6 million bales as a result of lower import demand by China and lower exportable supplies as production contracts.

Brazil, poised to overtake India as the world's second largest cotton exporter in 2012/13, is forecast to export 4.4 million bales, down 2 percent from the record exports a year earlier. India is forecast to export 4.2 million bales in 2012/13, down 56 percent from the previous year, due to a combination of lower production and higher domestic consumption.

Also, while the government of India has changed its cotton export policy several times in recent months, it has tended toward export restrictions. Australia's 2012/13 exports are forecast at a record 4.3 million bales, a 10-percent increase from a year earlier.

The United States, the world's leading cotton exporter, is forecast to export 12.0 million bales in 2012/13, up 5 percent from a year earlier. Uzbekistan's exports are forecast to grow 4 percent from a year ago to 2.6 million bales in 2012/13. The African Franc Zone is forecast to export 2.6 million bales in 2012/13, an increase of 20 percent from the preceding year.

Although imports are forecast to grow in several countries, contraction in China is expected to more than offset those increases elsewhere and result in an overall decline in global 2012/13 imports.

China's 2012/13 imports are forecast at 14.0 million bales, a 35-percent decrease from the preceding year, as a result of lower projected consumption and availability of supplies from China's reserve stocks accumulated in 2011/12.

Bangladesh and Indonesia are forecast to import 3.6 million bales and 2.1 million bales in 2012/13, an increase of 14 percent in Bangladesh and 6 percent in Indonesia. Pakistan's 2012/13 imports are forecast at 2.2 million bales, more than twice the previous year's imports.

South Korea and Turkey are forecast to import 1.2 million bales and 3.0 million bales, a 2-percent decrease from a year ago in South Korea, and a 30-percent increase from the previous year in Turkey.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)

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