Global cotton use to rebound marginally in 2012-13

In the West region, upland production is estimated at 1.2 million bales, compared with 1.5 million last season. Despite a lower area, a record upland yield of 1,517 pounds per harvested acre in the West kept the crop there above average.

U.S. Demand Forecast Increased

U.S. cotton demand for the 2012/13 season was raised 200,000 bales this month to 15.2 million bales; the current estimate is also 200,000 bales above last season. U.S. cotton mill use—based on data collected by USDA’s Farm Service Agency— remains forecast at 3.4 million bales for 2012/13, compared with the 3.3-millionbale estimate for 2011/12.

On the other hand, U.S. cotton exports were increased in December; exports are now projected at 11.8 million bales, slightly above last season’s final estimate. Despite lower world cotton trade in 2012/13, larger U.S. supplies are expected to boost the U.S. share of global trade this season. The current trade share is forecast at 31 percent, compared with last season’s 26 percent and 2010/11’s 40 percent.

U.S. Stocks Revised; Farm Price Range Narrowed

With U.S. cotton production exceeding demand in 2012/13, U.S. ending stocks will rise above the beginning level. Ending stocks are currently projected at 5.4 million bales, 2 million bales above last season. Both the stock level and the stocks-to-use ratio—estimated at 35 percent—would be the highest in four seasons. Based on the latest supply and demand outlook for 2012/13, the average upland cotton farm price is now forecast to range between 65 and 71 cents per pound, compared with the final 2011/12 price of 88.3 cents per pound.

U.S. Cotton Textile Trade Lower During First 9 Months of 2012

U.S. cotton textile trade continues to be affected by the sluggish global economy in 2012. During the first 9 months of 2012, cotton product imports reached about 6.2 billion (raw-fiber equivalent) pounds, 7 percent below the comparable period in 2011.