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ICE cotton trends stay unchanged last week
Jul '13
ICE Cotton closed nearly unchanged on the week with the Z3 contract now making up more than 90% of cotton open interest.

In cotton itself it was a rather quiet week, with the squeeze of a few weeks ago all but forgotten and the US situation looking less explosive than before.

Tight carry-out was priced into the market forcing sales to slow as much as they needed to, and shipments this week were low enough that the USDA’s recent cut to 3.6m bales carry-out may need to be partly reversed to 3.7m or 3.8m bales.

The Indian monsoon is progressing well, and NASS Acreage report was a non-event (outside of any impact from the grains), with the 13.25m acre planted area figure being squarely within expectations.

In the macro markets, China’s surging money market rates finally caused alarm in global markets as the PBoC tried to prick a mini-bubble before it got bigger. The methods and communication were crude, but the goal and timing were necessary.

And while the market seems to believe the government has the situation under control, they are in dangerous territory as allowing a shock to a prime interest rate could cause a loss in confidence that is hard to temper.

In the US, Fed officials tried to talk back surging bond yields and falling equities and seemed to have some success by week end. Commodities in general have softened as investors pull back, which should create some longer-term buying opportunities in coming months.


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