Market edged lower despite the daily reduction of the cert stocks, which would normally provide support for the futures prices. A total of almost 290k bales were de-certed over the course of the week, and the stocks are at just a little over 160k bales currently.
Export report remained lackluster, and with two weeks left before the end of the season, it’s likely that the USDA export target of 13.3 million bales won’t be reached.
The long term picture for cotton looks negative but we still are looking at a very empty pipeline in the U.S. until new crop arrives. Since most of the lower valley South Texas crop was lost, we will have to wait till late Sept/Oct to get our hands on the new crop.
The inverted market shows how much demand there is already for Dec’13 cotton and with hardly any cert stocks, that will probably only get worse. We are still going through a very friendly commodity and equity cycle for the third quarter and this will probably continue.
Looking at the wedge pattern based Z’13 on page 2 the momentum would point to another test of the high side as the USD stays under pressure.
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