ICE Cotton settles around 125 pts higher last week

16 Sep '13

2 min read

ICE Cotton settled about 125 pts higher last week as a decent export sales report combined with only mildly bearish (and expected) adjustments to the USDA’s global supply and demand projections helped the market continue its bounce from around the 82 cent level.

The potential for a lower USDA Chinese crop estimate remains, while an upward revision to Chinese demand as the USDA Ag attaché in Beijing recently indicated seems premature at this point. The fall in open interest and the spec long position may have bottomed out to end the week as well, as the H4 contract showed a healthy gain on Thursday.

While widely expected, further news that the Chinese reserve was readying its domestic purchase program helped confidence, as did the potential (and it remains just potential) for India to limit cotton exports via a new tax scheme. Exporting country currencies have also held ground following recent sell-offs, eliminating somewhat the pressure on physical basis levels due to currency considerations.

In macro news, Russia seemed to outmaneuver the United States in regards to the Syrian situation this week, but if Syria did indeed give up its chemical weapons without America having to intervene militarily, history may turn out kinder than modern-day politicians. Whether this actually comes to fruition remains to be seen, but markets responded with more of a “fearoff” mentality this week.

Focus now is turning to the US debt ceiling and trying to determine whether there will be yet another confidence-damaging stand-off with Congress. Perhaps of most importance though will be the September 17th & 18th Federal Reserve meeting, with the decision to taper or not taper determining the fate of all asset markets globally next week.

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