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NY cotton futures come under some pressure this week

10 Jan '14
4 min read

Statistically, the US situation presented itself as follows at the beginning of January. Total supply amounts to 17.0 million statistical bales (3.9 beginning stocks plus crop of 13.1 million bales), of which 1.4 million bales have yet to be harvested, ginned or classed. Against that we have current commitments of 11.3 million bales (7.7 export and 3.6 domestic use), which leaves 5.7 million bales for sale.

This may sound like a lot, but we need to consider that these supplies have to last until the next crop arrives in October. Ending stocks at the end of July will have to be at around 2.5 million bales in order to supply domestic mills and export markets with enough cotton between August and October.

This leaves only around 3.2 million bales of US cotton for sale between now and July, which means that weekly export sales would have to average just a little over 100’000 running bales over these remaining 30 weeks. Not a tall order, even if Chinese imports were to slow down!

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