ICE Cotton H4 finishes week virtually unchanged

15 Feb '14

2 min read

ICE Cotton finished the week virtually unchanged basis the H4, while the K4 contract rose 115 pts to settle at 89.04 c/lbs.

Export sales and shipments remain well above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s target, which was unchanged in Monday’s S&D report, and yet the market climbed higher.

As all traders know, US supplies are tightening, and exacerbating the situation is the N/Z invert, which is pushing more supplies to the more forgiving export market than to the board.

At the same time, there is remains room for large deliveries to occur against the H4, and while the 13/14 crop on-call sales are supportive, they may be more explosive in May and July than March. As we head into H4 FND next Friday, it is the H/K spread that will determine market direction.

Outside markets this week continued bouncing back following the January sell-off triggered by the initiation of tapering in the US and emerging market macro and currency concerns.

While these provided a jolt, an essence of crisis was missing and despite tapering the supportive tone of global central banks remains under the market. US equities rebounded, bond yield rose, and the USD index softened, as coffee, cocoa, copper, oil, and corn all gained.

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