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ICE Cotton futures gains over 100 pts this week
May '14
ICE Cotton futures gained over 100 pts this week basis the N4 as a fall on Monday was offset the following session. The most surprising feature of the week was the large increase in N4 OI (+9,850 lots) this week, most of which entered the market on Tuesday’s bounce. 
Cert stocks have climbed to nearly 330k bales and US export sales this week were weak, as expected. With demand weak, this trend should continue in coming weeks. In new crop, Texas is yet to receive needed rain, an overabundance of precipitation in the Memphis territory, and planting progress 5% below the 5-year average. 
It remains to be seen how long new crop futures can continue to see an uninterrupted flow of supportive developments, but for the time being the market looks well supported. Next week sees the May WASDE release on Friday.
Despite disappointing US GDP growth in Q1 of only 0.1%, April jobs growth of 288k new jobs was far above expectations and strong enough to lower the unemployment rate to 6.3%. This was below the Fed’s original target, prior to it being removed earlier this year, but the labor force participation rate continued falling and the USD failed to gain against most crosses. Treasuries have rallied of late and rates are still expected to remain low for the foreseeable future. Equities are near the record-highs touched this week – more of the same so far this year.


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