US cotton mill use+exports expected to fall 4% in 2014-15

23 May '14

2 min read

U.S. cotton disappearance (mill use plus exports) in 2014/15 is expected to decrease 4 percent to 13.4 million bales, compared with 14.0 million bales estimated for 2013/14. Reduced foreign import demand—particularly from China—is largely responsible and expected to keep U.S. cotton exports at its lowest since 2000/01 when shipments were only 6.7 million bales.

Exports continue to account for the bulk of U.S. cotton disappearance and, at 9.7 million bales, 2014/15 exports are forecast to account for 72 percent of the total. With world cotton trade also expected to decline, the U.S. share of global trade is projected to rise slightly to 27 percent in 2014/15.

U.S. cotton mill use for 2014/15 is projected to reach 3.7 million bales, nearly 3 percent above the latest 2013/14 estimate of 3.6 million bales. With modest growth projected in world mill use, demand for U.S. cotton textile products is also expected to improve in 2014/15, as consumer demand for cotton apparel moves with the global economy.

With U.S. cotton production projected to exceed demand in 2014/15, ending stocks are forecast to rise from 2013/14. Stocks are projected at 3.9 million bales on July 31, 2015—1.1 million bales above the latest estimate for 2013/14 but equal to the 2012/13 level. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 29 percent in 2014/15, the highest since 38 percent was achieved in 2008/09.

Based on these initial supply and demand projections, the 2014/15 U.S. upland farm price is expected to range between 63 and 83 cents per pound. At the midpoint of the range, the farm price would be 4.5 cents below the 2013/14 estimate but near the price recorded for the 2012/13 season.

USDA

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