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USDA cotton export report above four week average
Jun '14
This week’s USDA export report was above the four week average with a total of 131,500 running bales sold for 2013/14 crop, 176,400 running bales for the 2014/15 crop, with 168,200 bales of upland and 11,400 bales of Pima shipped.
Instead of the market reacting to the upside to the above average report, we saw the market pull back yet again to a bullish report.
Like they say, if the market doesn’t react to bullish news, it isn’t a bullish market. Blame it on the rains in Texas. Last week’s downpour may have given enough water to the region for at least a month but June is historically a wet month so we could see more water fall in the parched area, helping both dryland and irrigated fields.
These rains coupled with interest in the cert stock, tight U.S. old crop stocks, and the spec roll will all impact the N/Z spread. In which direction and to what extent remains to be seen. The spread closed the week at 678 July over Dec.
In macro news, the ECB announced negative interest rates and additional broad-based measures to crank up the stimulus. It remains to be seen if Draghi and company’s willingness to pull out the big guns in order to spark the European economy will pay off. However, with the dollar down relative to other currencies we could see more interest in the commodity space in the short-run.


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