NY Cotton Futures continue to crater this week

05 Jul '14

4 min read

The market has remained under pressure, as the bearish case grows stronger by the week, which in turn emboldens sellers and keeps buyers in hiding.

As we have pointed out last week, the amazing turnaround of the US crop over the last six weeks has changed the market’s psychology from cautiously to decidedly bearish. There is now little doubt among traders that ROW inventories are going to increase substantially in the coming season, from the current 38.7 million bales to potentially 44-45 million bales by the end of the 2014/15-season. The USDA has its current estimate at 41.95 million bales.

We are therefore moving from a situation in which China owned too many bales while ROW stocks remained relatively tight to one in which both balance sheets are going to be flush with cotton. The possibility of a 2-3 million bales larger US crop than was expected just a little over a month back has forced growers and merchants to become a lot more aggressive with their hedging strategies.

The latest CFTC report provides an interesting insight in that regard. As of June 24 the trade carried a net short position of just 8.1 million bales net, which compares to a 13.0 million bales net short position a year ago. In other words, we are looking at a US crop that is potentially 5 million bales larger than last season, while the trade has 5 million bales fewer shorts on its book. The trade has clearly been surprised by this sudden reversal of fortune in the US and is now in catch up mode.

This has generated an enormous amount of selling pressure in a market that clearly lacks buying interest at the moment. With a chart that looks like the Niagara Falls, especially the weekly continuation chart, speculators are not interested in owning this market either, other than an occasional short-term momentum trade. There were several occasions recently on which the market spiked off the daily low and showed some promise going into the close, only to get knocked down again in the following session.

US export sales for the week ending June 26 were nothing to excite the market with, amounting to just 101’300 running bales. While the cleaning out of current crop inventories continued, with 41’500 running bales finding a home in 16 different markets, new crop sales of only 59’800 running bales were a clear sign that buyers are in no hurry to book forward business.

Shipments were fairly strong at 175’100 running bales and remained above the pace needed to make the 10.5 million bales USDA estimate. Total sales for the season now amount to 11.1 million statistical bales, whereof 10.0 million bales have already been exported.

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