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USDA forecast for US 2015 cotton crop remains unchanged
Jun '15
USDA’s 2015 cotton production projection for the US remains unchanged in its latest report from its earlier forecast at 14.5 million bales, which is 11 per cent below the final 2014 crop.

“While the Southwest precipitation that occurred in May was generally beneficial, uncertainty remains as to its effect on area and yield as planting was delayed and is still in progress,” an USDA press release said.

“The planting estimate of 9.55 million acres will be updated in USDA’s acreage report, which will be released on June 30,” it added.

The June 30 report will include actual plantings as of early June, as well as estimates for any remaining cotton to be planted.

According to USDA, as of June 7, 81 per cent of the expected cotton area had been planted, below last season’s 87 per cent and the 2010-14 average of 89 per cent.

“Crop development has followed similarly, with 7 per cent of the cotton area squaring by June 7, compared with 8 per cent last season and a 5-year average of 10 per cent,” USDA informed.

Based on current projections, the USDA has forecast US cotton harvested area at 8.6 million acres for 2015, reflecting a below-average abandonment rate of 10 per cent and as against last season’s 15 per cent.

The agriculture agency has projected 2015 US cotton yield at 809 pounds per harvested acre, compared with 838 pounds per harvested acre in 2014.

US cotton demand for 2015/16 remains projected at 14.5 million bales, slightly above the previous season’s estimate, with exports accounting for 10.7 million bales, while mill use contributes 3.8 million bales.

With expected US supplies and world import demand similar to a year earlier, US cotton exports are also forecast at the same level.

As a result, USDA projected US share of world trade at about 32 per cent for 2015/16, slightly above 2014/15 and the highest in five seasons.

US cotton mill use is forecast to rise 4 per cent in 2015/16, the highest since 2010/11 since the US textile industry has added additional capacity and is expected to remain very competitive in 2015/16.

Based on these supply and demand estimates, US cotton ending stocks for 2015/16 remain projected at 4.4 million bales, unchanged from the beginning level but the highest since 2008/09.

USDA has estimated the implied stocks-to-use ratio at 30 per cent, marginally below 2014/15.

The 2015/16 US average farm price is projected to range between 50 and 70 cents per pound, with the midpoint of this range slightly below 2014/15’s revised estimate of 60.5 cents per pound. (AR)

Fibre2fashion News Desk - India

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