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USDA projects 2015 US cotton crop at 13.1mn bales
20 Aug '15
3 min read
According to USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2015 crop, US cotton output is projected at 13.1 million bales, 1.4 million bales below July's projection and 3.2 million bales or 20 per cent below last season's crop.
According to a August report from the US government agriculture body, the 2015 production decrease is the result of lower area and yield.
Based on the August forecast, total cotton planted area in 2015 is estimated at 8.9 million acres, 100,000 acres lower than indicated in the June acreage report and 2.1 million acres below a year ago.
Harvested area is projected at 7.9 million acres in 2015, implying an abandonment rate of 11 per cent compared with 15 per cent in 2014.
The US yield is forecast at 795 pounds per harvested acre this season as against 838 pounds in 2014.
Upland production is projected at 12.65 million bales, 3.1 million bales below the 2014 crop and based on August estimates; the Southwest crop is projected at 5.7 million bales in 2015, down from 6.5 million in 2014.
With beneficial rainfall early this season, abandonment is forecast at only 17 per cent, compared with 2014's 25 per cent.
In the Southeast, production is anticipated at nearly 4.2 million bales in 2015, the lowest in six seasons and about one-third of the US cotton crop, with area and yield below year-ago levels.
The Delta crop is forecast at 2.3 million bales, the lowest since 1983, as area declines to 1.0 million acres, a record.
The Delta yield, however, is expected to approach 2014's record of 1,116 pounds per harvested acre; the region is projected to account for only 18 per cent of the cotton crop in 2015, about half the level of the early 2000s.
According to the report, in the West, upland production is projected at only 505,000 bales in 2015 as area is reduced for the fourth consecutive season.
“However, a record yield of 1,554 pounds per harvested acre is expected to keep upland production from falling further,” the report added.
Extra long staple (ELS) cotton production remains concentrated in the West, with California accounting for over 80 per cent of the ELS crop in 2015.
Smaller area and a lower yield are forecast to result in an ELS crop of 432,000 bales, the lowest since 2009's 400,000-bale crop.
US cotton demand for 2015/16 was reduced to 13.7 million bales as a result of the lower US production forecast and demand is nearly 1.1 million bales below last season's revised estimate and lowest since 1985/86.
US cotton mill use is forecast at 3.7 million bales in 2015/16, 4 per cent above the previous season; growth in US capacity and relatively low cotton prices are expected to push mill use to its highest in five years.
US exports, on the other hand, are forecast at 10.0 million bales, down 1.2 million bales from 2014/15 and the lowest since 2000/01. (AR)
According to a August report from the US government agriculture body, the 2015 production decrease is the result of lower area and yield.
Based on the August forecast, total cotton planted area in 2015 is estimated at 8.9 million acres, 100,000 acres lower than indicated in the June acreage report and 2.1 million acres below a year ago.
Harvested area is projected at 7.9 million acres in 2015, implying an abandonment rate of 11 per cent compared with 15 per cent in 2014.
The US yield is forecast at 795 pounds per harvested acre this season as against 838 pounds in 2014.
Upland production is projected at 12.65 million bales, 3.1 million bales below the 2014 crop and based on August estimates; the Southwest crop is projected at 5.7 million bales in 2015, down from 6.5 million in 2014.
With beneficial rainfall early this season, abandonment is forecast at only 17 per cent, compared with 2014's 25 per cent.
In the Southeast, production is anticipated at nearly 4.2 million bales in 2015, the lowest in six seasons and about one-third of the US cotton crop, with area and yield below year-ago levels.
The Delta crop is forecast at 2.3 million bales, the lowest since 1983, as area declines to 1.0 million acres, a record.
The Delta yield, however, is expected to approach 2014's record of 1,116 pounds per harvested acre; the region is projected to account for only 18 per cent of the cotton crop in 2015, about half the level of the early 2000s.
According to the report, in the West, upland production is projected at only 505,000 bales in 2015 as area is reduced for the fourth consecutive season.
“However, a record yield of 1,554 pounds per harvested acre is expected to keep upland production from falling further,” the report added.
Extra long staple (ELS) cotton production remains concentrated in the West, with California accounting for over 80 per cent of the ELS crop in 2015.
Smaller area and a lower yield are forecast to result in an ELS crop of 432,000 bales, the lowest since 2009's 400,000-bale crop.
US cotton demand for 2015/16 was reduced to 13.7 million bales as a result of the lower US production forecast and demand is nearly 1.1 million bales below last season's revised estimate and lowest since 1985/86.
US cotton mill use is forecast at 3.7 million bales in 2015/16, 4 per cent above the previous season; growth in US capacity and relatively low cotton prices are expected to push mill use to its highest in five years.
US exports, on the other hand, are forecast at 10.0 million bales, down 1.2 million bales from 2014/15 and the lowest since 2000/01. (AR)
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