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Decline in world cotton stocks expected in 2008/09
03
Jan '08
World cotton area is forecast at 34 million hectares in 2008/09, about the same as this season. Still, world cotton production is forecast at 26.9 million tons in 2008/09, up 5% from this season, due to an expected rise in yields.

Global cotton mill use is projected at 27.5 million tons in 2008/09, only 1% higher than in 2007/08 but still exceeding production. As a result, a further decline in world cotton stocks is expected in 2008/09.

The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 67 cents per pound in 2007/08, 8 cents higher than in 2006/07. An expected significant decline in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) is pushing prices higher in 2007/08.

2006/07 (estimates) and 2007/08 (projection), and on the ending stocks/mill use ratio in China (Mainland) in 2005/06 and 2006/07 (estimates). 95% confidence interval based on current estimates of supply, use and stocks: 61 to 72 cents per pound.

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International Cotton Advisory Committee

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