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Cotton stays fairly quiet
01
Feb '08
We got some overnight weakness in commodities from the weak close in U.S. stocks yesterday which also weighed on the foreign markets in Asia and Europe overnight. There was more follow through to the downside early in the day which continued to put pressure on cotton prices as well as the grains, energy and metals.

However, the last day of the month had a few surprises as we managed to mount a mid day rally which lead to a 300 point turn around from the lows and this time it held near the highs. Cotton stayed fairly quiet but did manage to settle off the lows and near the middle of the days trading range.

Volume was average again today with only 25,000 futures and 12,000 options as the market was not too impressed with today's export sales report. There were estimates as high as 500,000 potential new sales with rumors of China being a big buyer on last weeks pull back.

They did manage to buy 150k of the 300k in sales, but shipments remained close to 200k which is right on the 4 week average and continues to lag way behind the USDA estimate. The export reports for the other grains were also on the low side which gave them some early weakness as well. However, we did close strong in the equity markets and that helped get several commodities back in the green by the end of the day and may lead to further upside on Friday.

RSI remains near 50 and prices are holding the low at the 50-day moving average. We may continue to play the range between 67/69 until more information is available. The 50 and 9 day moving averages are starting to get closer as we move sideways and this could be a factor as we wait for a break in this current flag pattern.

We do have a USDA report coming up on February 11th and we are approaching H'08 expiration. However, grains will continue to have the biggest impact as we get closer to new crop planting and the fight for acreage.

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