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Oil & gold markets take a bigger hit
02
Feb '08
After a firm close in U.S. stocks yesterday, we did have some follow through buying overnight in the commodities as well as the markets in Europe and Asia. However, we got some negative news from this mornings jobs report which was expecting a 70,000 job gain, but instead published a 17,000 job loss.

This pulled the stock market off the 100 point higher opening and forced it to trade near unchanged most of the day but closed firm. Grains managed to stay slightly higher as well as cotton, but the oil and gold markets took a bigger hit and were significantly lower most of the day. Volume in futures was above average with 31,000 futures and 13,000 options as we continue to trade sideways in a tight range between 67.50 and 68.50.

Next week will have several reports that effect cotton and the grains including the NCC acreage estimate and the USDA S&D report on Friday. These along with the usual reports on the spec position and exports may give the market enough information to break out of the current range. Grain prices will continue to have a significant impact on cotton nearby as well as the global stock markets.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty about the economy going forward, and the first look at the 4th quarter growth from 2007 was only 0.6% compared to a 3.9% rise in the third quarter.

These signals from the economy are starting to effect the invincible gold and oil markets which make up the largest percentage of the commodityindex and may lead to the first sizeable correction in 6 years. See the Commodity and U.S. Dollar Index charts on page 2 in attached PDF.

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