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January world oil supply up, IEA
14
Feb '08
Crude oil prices are little changed from mid-January at just over $90/bbl. Weaker projections for global economic growth are offset by low stocks, forecast cold weather in the US and parts of Asia, supply disruptions (Nigeria/North Sea) and concern about Venezuelan supplies.

Products have underperformed crude, leading to weak refining margins. Global oil product demand has been revised down by roughly 200 kb/d to 87.6 mb/d in 2008, following weaker GDP growth figures in an interim report by the IMF. Weaker OECD growth, however, stands against still-robust projections for GDP growth in China and the Middle East, the key oil demand growth centres.

January world oil supply rose 745 kb/d to 87.2 mb/d on new output from Brazil, and recovering non-OPEC output elsewhere. However, a reassessment of 2008 prospects lowers OPEC gas liquids growth by 250 kb/d to 365 kb/d. Rising FSU, Asia-Pacific, Brazil and biofuels supplies generate 2008 non-OPEC growth of 0.97 mb/d.

January OPEC crude supply remained close to 32.0 mb/d, on higher output from Angola, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, offset by lower Iraq, Nigeria and Qatar volumes. Effective spare capacity increased to 2.4 mb/d in January but revisions to both supply and demand lift the 2008 call on OPEC crude and stock change by 0.1 mb/d.

Economic refinery run cuts in January and February were the most extensive for five years. Coupled with seasonal maintenance, February global refinery crude throughput should average 74.0 mb/d, down by 0.6 mb/d from January. However, higher runs in China, Other Asia and Russia underpin year-on-year throughput growth of 0.9 mb/d in 1Q08.

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