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Market to build trading range on K'08 between 75/85
13
Mar '08
Finally.... after the spot month has locked up or down almost every session since March began, we finally see a bit of stability in the futures market. However, the settlement just above unchanged, does not give the market credit since we did have a very volatile 650 point range most of the day.

After closing synthetically almost 300 points higher yesterday, we opened overnight weaker and eventually ran into some heavy bearish put buying on the open which pushed us all the way to limit down.

The selling dried up and found some support back toward the highs of the day with scale up trade selling keeping the market in check. Volume was strong with 50,000 futures and 60,000 options as the market looks like it is trying to settle down into a trading range.

We are not expecting a bullish export sales report tomorrow, but we probably did uncover some new sales this week when we dipped into the mid 70's. It is looking like the market may start trying to build a trading range on K'08 between 75/85 in the short term as we are starting to get some scale up selling from the trade and we find good buying support from mills in the mid 70's.

The bullish trend seems to remain in place as oil set a record today at 110 while the dollar hit a new low and wheat locked up the limit. The stock market tried to build on yesterday's impressive rally, but eventually failed as recession fears continue to linger around and keep a top on the market.

Technically, the market is a real roller coaster and the fireworks don't look like they are going to stop anytime soon. However, if anything the last several sessions may have set up some extreme limits where we could trade short term. Currently we have a very bearish fundamental picture, but there seems to still be good spec and hedge fund buying which we found today.

The upside may continue to run into trade scale up selling as the trade try to limit downside exposure, as we are currently caught between two gaps at 75.12-75.28 and 83.75-85.28.

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