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Cotton trade in a narrow range

29
Apr '08

Cotton traded in a narrow range on thin volume as we continue to follow outside markets. Grains were up overnight which gave support to cotton after several down sessions last week. However, other commodity reopened lower and put pressure on cotton during the day which returned back to the lows of the day on the close.

We did hear of some business being done overnight in China, but not the volume that will help propel cotton prices higher. Volume was only 14,000 contracts in futures and 5,000 in options as we had only 2500 contracts left in K'08 this morning.

After not finding any fireworks in the K'08 expiration, the open interest fell again on Friday to only 245k contracts and the specs today also showed a small reduction in their long position down to 10.3% from 11.1%.

It looks like the market is forming a sideways trade channel in N'08 between 71.50 and 73.50, but the upside feels limited unless we get a substantial increase in grains. Business remains hand to mouth and with cert stocks continuing to grow and stocks to use at record high levels, the cotton market does not have much to get excited about short term.

The false breakout on April 16th, which tested the high of 82 cents basis N'08 was followed by a profit taking sell off which has created the negative technical picture for the past sessions.

N'08 has been range trading and tested the short term support level at 71.25, which was touched on March 20th. The cotton market feels like we could move sideways short term with more down side testing in the future.

The next support lies at 70 cents, and with RSI at 40, there is a lack of buy signals. The general feel of the cotton market is to grind lower and look to sell rallies above 75 cents in July or 85 cents in Z'08.

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