Turkey to see decline in cotton production

13 Jun '08

3 min read

NY futures surged higher this week, with July gaining an impressive 499 points to close at 69.64 cents, while December advanced 394 points to close at 76.95 cents.

There were plenty of reasons for the market's strong showing this week, both on the fundamental and the technical side.

Supply worries certainly played a big role in this resurgence of the cotton market, as the US crop is headed for one of the lowest outputs in 20 years. Only the 1989/90 crop of 12.2 mio bales and the 1998/99 production of 13.9 mio bales rank below the current estimate of 14.5 mio bales. However, this number may be optimistic, because planted acres will probably not measure up to the original intentions of 9.4 mio acres and the West Texas crop is struggling.

After receiving just 3.38 inches of rain between October and April, Lubbock enjoyed a wet May that brought 5.32 inches of rain and allowed the cotton crop to get planted. However, since then it has turned very hot, dry and windy, with many of the dryland acres are experiencing stress. Since the last measurable rain on May 27 we have seen six days over 100 degrees F and sandblasting by strong winds has added to the woes.

Even though we may have cried wolf a few times too many in recent years in regards to the resilient West Texas crop, it seems that some dryland acreage has been lost and will not be replanted since we are now past the insurance deadline. Current conditions don't favor replanting anyway and there is no rain in the 7-day forecast. The longer this dry spell continues, the higher the abandonment number will be.

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