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New business may start to lift hedge
09
Jul '08
Technically, the market is still in a bear pattern, but we did bounce strongly today off the low set in V'08 at 68.00 cents. This level may represent an area in the short term where on-call sales fixations and new business could start to lift hedges. The rally in cotton was fueled by some friendly options and possibly some buy stops as cotton rose over 400 points in a very short period of time.

However, this sharp move was quickly sold and under light volume it could not hold up as we eventually settled 100 points lower. Volume was better than average, but still on the light side with only 29,000 futures and 23,000 options. Grains were all lower over night but the real heavy weight on the commodity market remains oil as it has fallen almost 7% in 2 days reaching a low today of 135.15 USD/barrel.

In order to get cotton back on the bull train, we need to close above 77 cents, but in the short term we will be testing the low set in June @ 71.65 which if we close below could allow Z'08 to reach the upper 60's. Loan cotton is starting to reach expiration, cert stocks keep rising, mill demand is scale down hand to mouth, and on top of that we are reaching seasonal lows in open interest. Nothing is pointing at a bullish scenario any time soon as we wait for good export demand to enter the market first.

Technically, the market looks bearish, but the RSI is reaching oversold levels at 30%. The 9-day MA crossed the 50 day moving average today so this may set us up for more downside testing as the specs have more room to sell. Cotton has made it through the initial planting period, but the crop is late and we will have to monitor weather in July and August.

The widespread sell off indicates that the commodity market had reached overbought levels and we will have to wait and see where the bottom will hold in the short term. There are estimates that oil can consolidate above 130 and the grains are finding support scale down.

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