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NY cotton market trade lower
Jul '08
NY cotton futures traded lower Monday session in thin volume. Overnight ICE opened around unchanged to a little lower amid weakness in the overall commodity index and lack of fresh news in the market. Trading was choppy which created an intra-day low of 72.31 pre options open and traded around high of the day prior to Chicago market open.

Further weakness kicked in when the equity market saw losses after a friendly open and crude oil was trading in the negative area as well. Cotton continued trading at the lower range but saw good support around 72 cents basis Z'08. December contract settled at 72.03 with total estimated volume of 7,700 contracts in futures and 6,900 in options combined.

The overall feeling is still very negative in the market as concerns of the U.S. as well as the world economy keep rising. The news of steps taken to aid the U.S. mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could mean that other credit crunch victims will not be helped.

With the housing crisis far from over, we are worried how much more bad news will surface to the market. The dollar and the stock markets are continuing on their down path, but are trying to look for a bottom as there are more and more congressional testimonies expressing concerns over the weak dollar and record high other commodities prices.

At the moment, cotton seems to be forming a long term trading range between 70/80 cents. We find good demand scale down when the front month breaks 70 cents, but there is good trade scale up selling above 80 cents where certing cotton becomes more attractive. Cotton has lost nearly 10 cents since end of June and both moving averages are pointing downwards. Today's candle stick is suggesting another weaker session tomorrow.

However, it appears that we are currently in the oversold area with RSI at 35%. The thin volume reflected that traders are taking a more cautious market approach waiting for more news to lead the market direction.

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