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Tropical storm Dolly could influence cotton market in coming week
22
Jul '08
The commitment reports are continuing to show slight weaknesses. As of Tuesday July 15, non commercials reduced their long positions by 1,154 contracts futures and options combined, and increased their short positions by 4,231 contracts.

Their net long position was thus reduced by 5,385 contracts. Commercials, on the other hand, increased their longs and reduced their shorts to reduce their net shorts by 2,870. Index funds steadily held onto and slightly increased their net long positions.

NYF Monday session was under pressure since open and was also affected by the losses in grains market. However, bullish options dominated today's options pit when futures selling on the screen kept pushing market lower.

The group who bought H'09 100/110 call spreads Friday came in and bought 2,000 lots more at 85 points. They also bought 750 lots Z'08 78 strike calls at 320 points.

More outright calls buying and puts selling were also seen done in the ring. Now is the time that traders are keeping a close eye on any weather news that could possibly influence the market price. According to the GFS model, tropical storm Dolly will make a landfall early Wednesday morning near the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The heavy rain and strong wind coming with the landfall in South Texas could have negative effect on cotton progress in that area. However, the worst might not be feared since it is currently forecast at category one.

The commodity index started its rally since beginning of June and topped out a month later. Cotton, at the moment and after having lost nearly 10 cents since end of June, seems to have found a comfortable short term sideways trading area.

The trading range is becoming narrower with lower highs and higher lows. This short term range between 72.00 and 74.20 basis Z'08 is likely to hold for the near sessions to come.

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