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Storm will destroy most of the cotton fields in valley area
25
Jul '08
Dolly finally made landfall Wednesday and brought strong winds and rain to the Texas-Mexico boarder. Although there's already premature news that the storm will destroy most of the cotton fields in the valley area, which is exaggerating the actual situation, the real damages will have to take a few days for the farmers to assess. India reported receiving good rainfalls in the major cotton, oilseeds and rice growing areas today.

As cotton farmers have until mid August to get planting going, the long due precipitation will help the crop do most of the catching up. NYF cotton market traded within a tight 75 point range pre options session. The low of the day eventually settled at 72.62 shortly after re-open of the Chicago market. Market went firmer from there, even though once traded in the negative territory temporarily, it was holding close to the higher part of the range.

Supported by light volume of bullish options activities, December contract successfully made 74 cents today's official high. Volume was light with only 8,600 contracts in futures and 8,000 contracts in options.

For the week ending July 17th net new sales for the current marketing year was posted this morning at 55,100 running bales and net new sales for the 08-09 crop year was posted at 96,900 bales. Although the sale number is much lower from a week before, the shipments are around unchanged at 258,600 bales.

The reversal of early loss and the strong finish Wednesday provided some technical support, and more buying interest entered the market Thursday session. NYF cotton tested the high of the current trading range and successfully settled at near high. MACD starts to cross and RSI is closing on the neutral 50%. Cotton has performed relatively better compared to other products in the commodity complex.

The short term sideways trading range formed since beginning of this month is still holding well and the December contract is likely to challenge the trend line resistance level at 74.20. Weather wise, we still need to keep an eye on the Indian situation.

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