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New York cotton futures market rebounds
26
Jul '08
Friday ICE opened slightly higher overnight and traded within a tight 20 point range with extremely light volume pre options open. It seemed difficult for December contract to break though the 74 cent level in early morning trading, but it made another run to the upside and created the intra day high at 74.58.

As the technical picture slightly improved over the week, the short side of the trade is getting a bit nervous and the weather news unfavorable to the crop progress in South Texas and India is also in the center of the market attention. We traded back and forth around the unchanged level, but took off before options close and posted 74.80 as today's official high.

As summer lull drags along, trading has not got much more exciting this week. As of end of yesterday, we slightly gained 62 points on December contract during the course of the week, and total open interest dropped 631 contracts. The general commodity index continued its hefty sell off while crude oil is managing to stay above the $122 support level. Cotton has outperformed the market in comparison to other commodities.

However, the trading volume has been unimpressive, which failed to create momentum to push market out of the near term sideways trading range. Weather wise, Dolly brought heavy winds and rainfall to the valley area, but South Texas around Corpus Christi has not received much of the rain. India received good amount of precipitation, which is forecasted to last over the weekend. Good rain into mid August will be beneficial in helping crops do most of the catching up.

NYF cotton recovered its earlier loss and ended the week with three positive trading days. The higher lows and higher highs, as well as the strong finish at end of each session slightly improved the near term technical outlook. However, it's still lacking good trading volume to back it up. It feels like the market is trying to test out a short term bottom and create a break out indicator of the sideways trading range.

MACD has crossed and RSI is closing on the neutral 50%. Range bound trading is still likely to last into the near future, and we'll have to keep our patience in search for a breakout signal.

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