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Market returns to dull narrow trading range on light volume
Sep '08
We returned to a dull narrow trading range today on light volume. The U.S. dollar continues to rise as commodities struggle to go higher, but most commodities bounced off the lows except for cotton. Oil prices lead the early fall in the commodity index across the board. Volume fell back to sub 10,000 volume in futures, but options were active with over 15,000 traded.

Cotton crop across the Delta has some problems as wet cool weather threatens to produce boll rot this year. Along with more storms on the way, the uncertainty of the crop is keeping the downside limited, but we should see good scale up selling near the top of the range at 72.00.

Ramadan has begun in large importing countries such as Indonesia and Turkey and this may have an impact on demand along with the bounce in cotton prices through the holiday period where some mills may be closed until mid-October.

Technicals turned friendly last week as MACD started to cross higher in cotton made a nice run to the upside. Although volatile, the market is well traded in the range. We ran through some correction, but buying interest would come through to prevent the market from falling off.

Considering the low open interest in cotton and the lack of demand, cotton feels like we may continue in a sideways trading range up to heavy resistance at 72.00. This will depend on how much the rebound in outside markets can follow through, but the short term upside looks limited and we may see a correction in cotton if we cannot break through 72.00 cents.

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