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Cotton trades to downside
Sep '08
Friday session is fairly quiet with an estimated volume of 9,000 contracts in futures and 8,000 contracts in options. Overnight session was choppily traded within narrow range as traders felt uncertainty and waited for fresh market news to trade on.

As weaknesses came from the outside markets in stocks, crude oil and Chicago grains, cotton continued its slow pace and traded to the downside. December contract broke the 61 cent level but succeeded in holding above 60 cents. The official low at 60.15 came as the last electronically traded price.

Friday is all about the failure of WaMu and the roadblock the bailout plan negotiation is running into. News came out Thursday night that the government seized Washington Mutual and sold its banking assets to JPMorgan Chase for $1.9 billion.

The bailout battle continues even when a quick action is called for. The negotiation restarted the day after the failure of WaMu and the stock market reacted to the news by trading in the negative area for the majority of the session. However, the Dow settled at 121 points higher on close under mixed feelings.

While the deal is not likely to be reached any time soon, presidential candidate John McCain reversed his previous decision and will participate in the first presidential debate that the America has been anticipating.

Technicals were starting to turn positive and we certainly were due for a bounce after grinding below 60 cents last week. However, we are running into further selling pressures scale up even though there is still good demand at the 60 cent level in Z'08.

This will depend on outside markets, but the current financial crisis should pump money into the commodity sector. The weak economic conditions are hitting Asia as well as Europe and there does not appear to be an end nearby.

Need to see how the global markets react this week, but with commodity prices bouncing hard on Monday, it looks like we are in for a short term correction in cotton which could try and test resistance at 65 cents.

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