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Cotton supply & demand estimates show marginally lower production
Feb '09
The 2008/09 U.S. supply and demand cotton estimates include sharply lower domestic mill use and exports compared with last month, raising ending stocks nearly 12 percent to 7.7 million bales. The cotton production estimate is unchanged. Domestic mill use is reduced 7 percent to 3.9 million bales based on recent activity.

U.S. exports are reduced 500,000 bales to 11.5 million, due to lower projected foreign imports, especially by China. The forecast for the average market price received by producers of 47 to 54 cents per pound is raised 3 cents on the lower end and 2 cents on the upper end of the range, reflecting higher than anticipated prices to date.

The 2008/09 world cotton supply and demand estimates show marginally lower production, and sharply lower consumption and trade relative to last month. Production is reduced in Pakistan, Argentina, and Mexico. Consumption is cut more than 2 percent from last month's estimate as the world economy continues to perform below previous expectations, resulting in a buildup of textile inventories and idling of spinning capacity.

Consumption is reduced in China, Turkey, the United States, Pakistan, Russia, India, Indonesia, and other countries, but is raised in Thailand. If realized, the forecast year-to-year decline of 8.2 percent would be the largest since 1937/38. With lower consumption, world stocks are raised nearly 4 percent from last month to 61.7 million bales.

World trade in 2008/09 is lowered nearly 6 percent from last month due to lower projected imports by China and others. The reduction of 1.0 million bales in China's imports is indicated by lower consumption and the potential availability of surplus stocks from the government's reserve.

Exports are reduced for most of the world's major suppliers, especially the Central Asian countries, India, and the United States. Export market share for Central Asia and India is expected to decline in 2008/09 due to offering prices that are above world market-clearing levels.

Cotton Council International

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