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Cotton sitting on very critical support line
20
Feb '09
We are waiting for a friendly export sales report tomorrow, but in the meantime cotton is struggling to move higher. The trend is lower even though we are reaching an oversold point that is due for a correction. However, the equity markets keep sliding and if you notice on page 2 in attached PDF, we made the lowest close today since October 2002.

We are sitting on a very critical support line that if broken could lead to further technical sell signals. Volume was average today with 11,000 futures and 2,000 options.

RSI is at 32 in cotton and the short term commodity picture does look oversold, but we need the stock market to lead the way. Demand has been good, but may not be enough if outside markets do not cooperate. H'09 FND is on Monday and with cert stocks rising, it looks like we will have a quiet transition to K'09 as we are almost back to full carry.

Fundamentally the economic situation remains negative and mill consumption will probably keep falling all year which will put a lid on NY even with lower acres for new crop.

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