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Daily worldwide cotton market report
Apr '09
Last night in New York futures market, May 2009 closed at 46.40 with a gain of 208 points, the July 09 closed at 47.20 with a gain of 191 points, while the October closed at 49.89 with a gain of 178 points. The A index declared settled at 53.05 with a gain of 120 points.

The spot rate of KCA declared settled at Rs. 3300/= as it was the other day with no changes today. In the domestic market today 2000 bales of Ghotki sold at Rs. 3400/=, 400 bales of Matli sold at Rs. 3300/=, 200 bales of Rasoolabad sold at
Rs. 3300/=, 400 bales of Sanghar sold at Rs. 3300/=, 400 bales of Shahdadpur changed hands at Rs. 3300/= and 1000 bales changed hands in Karachi at Rs.3300/=.

The March USDA planted acreage for cotton was slightly higher than anticipated, but still supportive at 8.811 million acres. Upland acreage was estimated at 8,668,000 acres verse 9.296 million acres last season. Pima acreage was 143.5 thousand acres verse 174.0 thousand acres last year.

ARK posted the largest decline vs. last season with a 37% reduction with Louisiana and Mississippi coming in record with a 20% to 22% decline respectively. The NCC estimated US plantings at 8.1 million acres in February.

The recovery in US equity markets today coupled with the sharp rally in the CNCE today more than offset the higher than expected US planting estimate. Futures posted a new 4 week high today reinforcing a higher near term price outlook. ICE futures should gain support from a bullish soybean planting estimate as well.

A bullish signal was given with an upside crossover of the daily Stock statistics. Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive.

The outside day up and close above the previous day's high is a positive signal. With the close over the 1st swing resistance number, the market is in a moderately positive position.

Ghulam Rabbani & Co

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