Domestic mill use for February falls sharply

20 Apr '09

2 min read

This month's U.S. 2008/09 cotton estimates include marginally lower supplies combined with larger offtake, resulting in a 600,000-bale reduction in forecast ending stocks. The production estimate is lowered 206,000 bales from last month based on USDA's final Cotton Ginnings report, released March 25, 2009. Domestic mill use is lowered 100,000 bales to 3.65 million, as mill use reported for February fell sharply.

However, exports are raised 500,000 bales, reflecting recent strong export sales and shipments. Ending stocks are now estimated at 6.7 million bales, or 41.5 percent of total use. The forecast season-average price range of 47 to 51 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.

The world cotton estimates for 2008/09 include lower consumption and higher ending stocks compared with last month. World production is reduced marginally, due mainly to adjustments for the United States and Iran.

World consumption is reduced 1.2 percent, due to decreases for China and others. China's consumption is lowered 1.0 million bales, accounting for three-fourths of the drop in world consumption, based on a sharp slowdown in net textile exports beginning in January.

World trade shows marginal decreases, as imports are reduced for Pakistan, Thailand, and others. World exports also are reduced marginally, including sharply lower exports forecast for India, which are partially offset by increases for the United States and Brazil. World ending stocks of 63.4 million bales are slightly above both last month's estimate and the beginning level.

United States Department of Agriculture

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