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Daily worldwide cotton market report
14
May '09
Last night in New York futures market, July 09 closed at 59.04 with a loss of 128 points the volume of business traded under May cover was of 12400 contracts , the October 09 closed at 60.53 with a loss of 108 points the volume remained 442 contracts, while the December 09 closed at 61.03 with a loss of 111 points and the volume traded was of 5678 contracts . The Cotlook A index declared settled at 63.50 with a decrease of 30 points.

The spot rate of KCA remained firm and strong the settlement declared at Rs. 3700/=, with no changes today. In the domestic market today 200 bales of Sanghar sold in Rs. 3725/=, 400 bales of Burewala sold at Rs. 3700/=, 1000 bales of Jalal Pur sold at Rs. 3700/=, 805 bales of Rahim Yar Khan sold at Rs. 3800/=, in another contract in Rahim Yar Khan 1000 bales sold at Rs. 3800/=, and 400 bales of Rajan Pur sold at Rs. 3800/=.

The reversal down in NY Futures is the first warning sign that the 10-week uptrend is tiring. Considering the weakness in the domestic cash basis and the lack of recent U.S. export demand leaves the market vulnerable to a near term setback. We are still sensitive to the fact that cotton usually sets seasonal highs in the May/June timeframe.

A bearish signal was triggered on a crossover down in the daily stochastics. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next downside objective is 58.30. With a reading over 70, the 9-day RSI is approaching overbought levels.

The reversal-type action in cotton yesterday leaves the appearance that at least a near-term top is in place. The longer-term outlook for cotton prices is favorable as long as there is a strong recovery in world demand for the coming season. The USDA believes world cotton consumption will reach 113.54 million bales as compared with production at 106.46 million bales. Lower production is coming from the US and China.

China production is expected to slip 8% to 33 million with usage at 47.5 million. China imported 146,000 tonnes in April which was up 48% from March but still down 45% from last year. Traders await news on when China might release some of the massive reserves accumulated since the harvest last fall. Reserve stocks reached 2.72 million tonnes or near 36% of their domestic output. The move to the highest level since October early in the session yesterday was met with active profit-taking.

The USDA supply/demand report was considered supportive but sellers were active in the early bounce with talk of the overbought condition of the market and ideas that traders had already expected a decline in ending stocks helping to spark some of the long liquidation selling pressure. Weakness in the stock market added to the negative tone. US ending stocks for the 2009/10 season were pegged at 5.6 million bales from 6.8 million this year and 10.04 million last year.

Production is expected near 13.25 million bales with exports of 11 million. World ending stocks are pegged at 57.77 million bales from 62.31 million this season. While stocks are expected to decline, the stocks/usage ratio for the 09/10 season is still relatively high at 50.9% which is similar to 06/07 (50.9%) and 07/08 (50.6%). Pakistan and India have much larger supply for the coming year with the USDA attaché in Pakistan pegging the crop at 9.84 million bales, up 5%.

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Ghulam Rabbani & Co.


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