World cotton mill use fell by 12% to 23.3 million tons in 2008/09, driven by the global economic and financial crisis that resulted in a sharp drop in consumption of textile products. The Secretariat's projection for 2009/10 has become more optimistic over the last twelve months, as the global economic outlook has improved. 2009/10 global cotton mill use is now forecast at 23.9 million tons, up 2.8% from last season. World cotton mill use is expected to continue to recover in 2010/11, growing by 2.5% to 24.5 million tons, driven by continued progress in global economic growth.
Higher prices paid for 2009/10 cotton, combined with the recent decline in prices of grains and oilseeds and relatively stable production costs, should encourage farmers to increase cotton plantings in 2010/11. World cotton area is forecast up by 5% to 32.0 million hectares. Assuming an average yield slightly higher than in 2009/10, world cotton production is expected to rebound to 24.1 million tons. A small decline in cotton ending stocks is expected in 2010/11.
World cotton trade is expected to increase slightly in 2010/11 to 7.4 million tons. Chinese imports are forecast to grow by 15% to 2.1 million tons, driven by increasing mill use. Exports from the United States are projected up by 10% to 2.6 million tons next season, driven by increased production, whereas Indian exports could remain stable. For other major exporters, only small changes in shipments are expected at this stage.