Cotton production to rebound 14% in 2010/11
World cotton production in 2010/11 is forecast to rebound 14 percent to 116.9 million bales, a significant recovery from the output slide observed in the previous year. The bulk of the production gain is expected to come from Australia, Brazil, China, the United States, and Uzbekistan.
Australia's production in 2010/11 is forecast at 2.3 million bales, up 44 percent from the previous year and the highest production in past five years. Australia's crop, which is mostly irrigated, has experienced considerable gains in the last couple of years as the return of more typical levels of precipitation has substantially improved the availability of water for irrigation there. Cotton area in Australia is expected to increase 30 percent to 260,000 hectares in 2010/11, while yield is forecast at 1,926 kg/ha. Australia has the highest cotton yield in the world.
Brazil's 2010/11 production is forecast at 7 million bales, up 31 percent from a year earlier, and equivalent to the second highest production on record. Like other major cotton countries, Brazil is expected to expand area to take advantage of the high global price of the fiber. For 2010/11, cotton area in Brazil is forecast to rise 20 percent from the previous year to 1 million hectares, comparable to the area harvested in the period leading up to the global financial crisis in 2008. Brazil's largest cotton producing states, Mato Grosso and Bahia, are expected to account for at least 80 percent of the 2010/11 crop.
China's 2010/11 production is forecast at 33 million bales, up 1.5 percent from the previous year. Cotton area in China in 2010/11 is expected to rise 2 percent from the previous year, while yield is forecast at 1,331 kg/ha, similar to previous year's yield.
In the United States, 2010/11production is forecast to rebound 52 percent from a year earlier, as producers increased area in response to the high market price of cotton. The U.S cotton area is forecast at 4.3 million hectares, up 41 percent from the previous year. In Uzbekistan, the 2010/11 crop is expected to increase 20 percent from a year ago to 4.8 million bales, resulting entirely from yield gains.
While Uzbek's 2010/11 cotton area is not expected to change from the 1.3 million hectares harvested a year earlier, yield is expected to increase 20 percent to 804 kg/ha in 2010/11.
Global 2010/11 cotton area is forecast at 33 million hectares, up 9 percent from a year ago and the highest area to be harvested in past four years. World cotton yield is expected to improve 5 percent to 771 kg/ha.
World Cotton Trade to Surge in 2010/11
Global cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 38.2 million bales, up 7 percent from a year ago. The United States is expected to account for the bulk of the 2010/11 trade rebound, as the world's leading exporter is anticipated to export 15 million bales. Shipments by other major exporters, such as Australia and Brazil, are expected to decline 5 percent and 4.5 percent in 2010/11to 2 million and 1.9 million bales, respectively. In India, exports are forecast to decrease by 50,000 bales from the previous year to 6.5 million bales, while in Uzbekistan, 2010/11 exports are forecast to remain unchanged at 3.8 million bales.