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Textile sector to heavily import cotton in new season
Aug '10
Global cotton production is forecast at 25.2 million tons in the season 2010-11, up by 15 percent from 2009-10, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee. World cotton mill use is projected to continue to recover in 2010-11, growing by 2 percent to 24.9 million tons, pushed by continued improvement in global economic growth.

China and India are expected to account for 80 percent of the increase in world cotton mill use in 2010-11. Global imports are expected to continue to recover in 2010-11, rising by 4 percent to 8 million tons. This increase will be driven by Chinese imports, forecast to grow by 22 percent.

The latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates for 2010-11, estimates global cotton consumption at approximately 120.9 million bales. Despite the 2.7 percent increase from 2009-10, this season's consumption remains well below 123 million bales used just 3 years ago.

China's 2010-11 cotton production is forecast at 33 million bales, up 1.5 percent from the previous year. Cotton area in China in 2010-11 is expected to rise 2 percent from the previous year, while yield is forecast at 1,331 kg / ha, similar to previous year's yield.

Global cotton trade in 2010/11 is forecast at 38.2 million bales, up 7 percent from a year ago. China, the world's leading mill user is forecast to consume 50 million bales, up 3 percent from the previous year. China's textile sector will mainly rely on imports caused by the domestic shortage of cotton supply in the new season.

Therefore, China's cotton shortfall next year will rely heavily on imported cotton, one third of cotton demand will rely on cotton imports. In this way, overseas traders will have more initiative over cotton price; domestic regulation scope will be narrowed.

Domestic cotton price is expected to operate primarily in a range of 16000-18000 Yuan / ton amid a main pattern of upward oscillation in the second half of the new cotton year.

Fibre2fashion News Desk - China

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