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Cotton stocks and season average price revised
15
Dec '10
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2010/11.

U.S. cotton demand for the 2010/11 season was increased slightly this month to 19.3 million bales, nearly 25 percent above last season. U.S. mill use based on Department of Commerce data was raised 100,000 bales in December and is now forecast at nearly 3.6 million bales in 2010/11, nearly 3 percent above the 2009/10.

U.S. cotton exports were unchanged this month and remain forecast at nearly 15.8 million bales, 31 percent above last season. With larger U.S. exportable supplies available this season and foreign import demand also rising, U.S. cotton exports are forecast to expand to their second highest on record behind 2005/06's estimate of nearly 17.7 million bales.

U.S. Stocks and Season average price revised
With a smaller cotton crop forecast and slightly higher demand expectations, U.S. cotton ending stocks were reduced in December to 1.9 million bales, more than a third below the final 2009/10 ending stocks and the lowest stock level since 1924/25. In addition, the stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at a record-low 10 percent, compared with last season's 19 percent.

As a result, cotton prices have remained relatively high through the early months of the current season. The 2010/11 average upland cotton farm price is now forecast to range between 76 and 86 cents per pound, well above last season's final price of 62.9 cents.

U.S. Cotton Textile trade expands during first 9 months of 2010
U.S. cotton textile imports and exports continue to grow in 2010 when compared with the year before. During the first 9 months of 2010, cotton product imports had reached 7.4 billion pounds, up from 6.5 billion during the comparable period in 2009. Similarly, cotton textile exports increased to 1.3 billion pounds through September, compared with 1.1 billion pounds from a year earlier. As a result, the cotton product trade deficit for the first 9 months of 2010 totaled nearly 6.1 billion pounds, or 12 percent more than in 2009.

Meanwhile, the leading suppliers of cotton textile and apparel products to the United States continue to account for an increased share. For U.S. imports, the top five suppliers combined for nearly 64 percent of the total during January-September 2010, compared with 62 percent from a year earlier and for calendar 2009. While each of the top five suppliers' volume grew during the first 9 months of 2010, China's volume expanded considerably more as its share grew from 31 percent last year to nearly 34 percent in 2010.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)


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